DailyWatch10122016

October 12, 2016 @ 9:08 am

Today’s Markets

In Asia, Japan -1.1% to 16840. Hong Kong -0.6% to 23407. China -0.3% to 9680. India +0.1% to 28082.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.4%. Paris -0.2%. Frankfurt -0.2%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.1%. S&P -0.1%. Nasdaq -0.2%. Crude +0.4% to $50.97. Gold +0.1% to $1257.40.
Ten-year Treasury Yield Flat at 1.78%

Today’s Economic Calendar

MBA Mortgage Applications
10:00 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
1:00 PM Results of $24B, 3-Year Note Auction
1:00 PM Results of $20B, 10-Year Note Auction
2:00 PM FOMC minutes

 

Market Summary

The S&P futures are trading at 2132 in morning trading.

The Federal Reserve is in the spotlight with the central bank due to release minutes from its meeting in September this afternoon. The text will be closely analyzed to see how close the three dissenting Fed members from the last FOMC meeting were from reeling in more support for a 25 basis point increase. Though the market is pricing in a ~60% likelihood of a rate hike at the December 14th meeting, economists note that there is plenty of data to be released yet, which could push a rate hike into 2017. It’s a foregone conclusion that the Fed will skip any rate action at the November meeting with the wildcard presidential election only a week later.

We have said we are in a range of the S&P futures from 2120 to 2190. Yesterday, we bounced off the lower level support.

I am beginning to think we may see a severe correction. Bonds, gold and S&P are all rolling over. Crude has bounced but has yet to break through its resistance at 51.67

Scary scenario is S&P at 1400 by the end of the year.

Holding with previous call:

Long Vix and Dollar

Short S&P,Gold and Crude

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