DailyWatch 10172016

October 17, 2016 @ 8:28 am

Today’s Markets

In Asia, Japan +0.3% to 16900. Hong Kong -0.8% to 23037. China -0.7% to 3041. India -0.6% to 27498.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.9%. Paris -0.6%. Frankfurt -0.7%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.3%. S&P -0.4%. Nasdaq -0.4%. Crude -0.3% to $50.19. Gold -0.1% to $1253.80.
Ten-year Treasury Yield Flat at 1.80%

Today’s Economic Calendar

8:30 Empire State Mfg Survey
9:15 Industrial Production


Market Summary

The S&P futures are trading at 2125 in morning trading.

Long-dated government bond yields are up nicely again today nearly across the board. Leading the way are Spanish 10-years, up 11 basis points to 1.156%. The U.K. 10-year Gilt yield is higher by another 9 basis points to 1.09%. Janet Yellen’s Friday afternoon speech – in which she suggested the Fed might have to tolerate higher-than-otherwise inflation – makes for a good excuse to sell today. U.S. yields rose sharply in the aftermath of her musings, and the 10-year is higher by another basis point this morning to 1.81%. The German 10-year Bund yield is up 3.4 basis points to 0.093%. The Italian 10-year is up 5.8 basis points to 1.439%. The 10-year JGB yield is flat at -0.055%

We have said we are in a range of the S&P futures from 2120 to 2190. We are at the lower edge of that range this morning.

My previous post said “I am beginning to think we may see a severe correction. Bonds, gold and S&P are all rolling over. Crude has bounced but has yet to break through its resistance at 51.67. Scary scenario is S&P at 1400 by the end of the year.”

Holding with previous call:

Long Vix and Dollar

Short S&P,Gold and Crude

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